It is known that foreign policy is an extension of the domestic one. It is no accident here that Russia starts meddling into the internal US matters, attempting to sow internal discord, playing on organic problems and turning them into political tools. Events in Los Angeles might cause the outcomes going far beyond the domestic US landscape, reshaping the world.
Being given a vast experience in analysing Russian hybrid warfare in Ukraine and Europe, let me point out specific similarities - and differences of events unfolding. Let us look at the immigration policy protests taking place in Los Angeles from several points of view: protest management, internal political environment of the US, and the changes in the geopolitics.
The case of protest, liberal vision of the refugee policy, has nothing to do with NATO, China, Ukraine or Russia. It is a complex internal matter for the nation of immigrants which is facing a challenge of illegal migration wave and a multi-decade neglect of border policy, as well as significant differences in treatment of illegal immigrants in different states and communities across the USA, from territories to the social groups (including those who just acquired US citizenship).
Protests are not aimed to change the government or to join a specific economic or geopolitical bloc - that is why this protest is completely different from Velvet revolutions of late 1980s in Central Europe, the Arab Spring or both Maidan protests in Ukraine in 2004 and 2013-14. They seem not to be coordinated from a single center, do not possess a formal leadership, and are not directly connected to political parties and figures. Being organic in nature, they lack coordination and internal security inside the movement, which leaves it extremely vulnerable to external meddling and manipulation. Violence remains a major risk factor, and moral competition is in place.
Internal political environment in the USA is also different from any other in the world. Democratic elections led to the Republican control over both chambers of parliament, executive branch, with the Conservative-controlled Supreme Court as well. At the same time, USA is a federal republic («not a state but a collection of states», as one my American friend put it), with vast powers lying at the level of state governors and legislatures; local self-governance also has important and powerful voice multiplied by the vast local budgets and institutions.
Russia is very well outspoken on the matter of these protests. So far only on the academic and «activist» level - but anyone who knows today's Russia, knows that any unsanctioned commentary will be quickly removed and that person will be punished. Nothing of the kind happened to Konstantin Blokhin, one of the experts of the center of the research of the security problems within the Russian Academy of Sciences. He publicly suggests that the protest should get violently disbanded with the use of the US Army, and that popular opinion in the Democrats-controlled California should be disregarded. Another notorious Russian public intellectual, Alexander Dugin, in his Telegram Channel, directly and with impunity states that «LA is Maidan, and the same people organise it in the same way». A minor attack dimension: push US and Ukraine away based on the «colour revolutions» conspiracy.
Russians are known to exploit the existing divides, strengthening them to overlap and multiply trends nationwide. And there is no need for the Russian «boots on the ground»: trolls, hired and indoctrinated high-level academics and experts (not only «sovietologists»), and conceptual reflexive control by shaping narratives helps manage the process with little trace of the active meddling.
Yes we may presume that «boots» are on the ground as well: Latin American dimension of the Russian «sleeper agents» is only now becoming more visible, and placing people inside opposite camps (let us remember the role of Maria Butina inside the National Rifle Association) has been Russian modus operandi for a long time. To clean them, this will require a very thorough work of the US counterintelligence.
Russia is extremely well skilled in crowd warfare, from the «peace movement» of the 1980s aimed at hybrid assault on Europe's nuclear deterrent to the modern deployment of «little green men» for Crimean invasion and «local self-defense» to the cities of Donbas. It is capable and might again be keen to «do it again».
Russia is weaponizing internal US political events to achieve its own goals in several spectacular ways. And here we come to the geopolitical matters. A partial success of «refugeeware» during the Syrian civil war let the Russians significantly change Europe's political landscape, bringing anti-immigration (and Russia-friendly) parties from marginal to top positions. French National Rally, German Alternative for Germany, and Britain's Reform Party are the most spectacular successes of this political engineering.
Russian objectives regarding the US are as follows: distracted and divided USA must be too busy with its internal troubles to shape global affairs, disengaged from Europe and focused on China. Political violence over immigrants' issues might cause just enough pain (especially if the armed forces are used) to achieve the goal.
Old Transatlantic maxima «to keep Americans in, Russians out, and Germans down» is becoming irrelevant. Russians are in, Germans are up, and Americans are getting ready to be out. But since it is a process in the making, recognising the patterns and defusing them would be useful.
Full or partial republication of the text without the written consent of the editors is prohibited and considered a violation of copyright.
Follow us on Facebook and Instagram. Lviv Now is an English-language website for Lviv, Ukraine’s «tech-friendly cultural hub.» It is produced by Tvoe Misto («Your City») media-hub, which also hosts regular problem-solving public forums to benefit the city and its people.